Blaise Pascal was a 17th century French mathematical genius who spelled out the laws of probability more clearly than anyone before him.\u00a0 This was a watershed moment, because for the first time humanity had a systematic way of thinking about the future.<\/p>\n

Pascal was both a gambler and a religious zealot.\u00a0 He wanted to know if God really exists, which is knowledge not easily acquired.\u00a0 So the next question was, “Should I act <\/em>as if God exists, or should I act<\/em> as if He does not exist?”<\/p>\n

Suppose, said Pascal, that we lead a life of virtue and self-restraint, and when the day of reckoning comes, we discover there is no God.\u00a0 Well, life was not too bad being good.\u00a0 Maybe\u00a0 life could have been a little more fun, but … this is a consequence that most people could accept.<\/p>\n

Suppose however,\u00a0 we bet that God does not exist, and lead a life of lust, violence, and depravity, only to discover that God really does exist.\u00a0 Suddenly we’re looking at some serious time in the furnace of the underworld.\u00a0 Pascal was not willing to take this chance.<\/p>\n

Pascal’s wager is helpful for speakers.\u00a0 When recommending a course of action to an audience that seeks GOG (greed, opportunity, and glory)<\/a><\/strong> a speaker should spend time exploring the possible downsides.\u00a0 Risk is always present, no matter how close the goal appears.<\/p>\n

For instance, hedge fund managers<\/strong><\/a> often make a huge bet, and then borrow even more money to put down on the bet to increase their potential earnings.\u00a0 They do this because their data tells them that it’s practically a sure thing.\u00a0 The problem arises when their data, which is about the past, does not apply to the future.\u00a0 And if they have borrowed more money than they can easily pay back, their creditors close them down, and their clients lose their money.<\/p>\n

A persuasive speaker<\/a><\/strong>, when advocating for a course of action, will ask the question, “How will we deal with surprises?\u00a0 What are the consequences if we are wrong in our assumptions? ”\u00a0 Risk is the eternal possibility of being wrong–not always in an adverse direction.\u00a0 Sometimes you’re wrong and things turn out better than expected.<\/p>\n

When recommending a decision to an audience, it is wise to explore the consequences of your being wrong.\u00a0\u00a0 Sometimes the consequences are trivial (lead a good life but get no prize in Heaven), and sometimes they are not (lead a bad life and cook slowly forever.)<\/p>\n

Rather than let the audience try to poke holes in your argument, you should do it yourself.\u00a0 Give your presentation a pressure test, and see if it holds up.<\/p>\n

Effective persuasion<\/a><\/strong> starts with the recognition that any forecast can be wrong, then weighs the consequences of being wrong.\u00a0\u00a0 Even if success will lead to fame, wealth and glory, you will be more credible if you surface the negative possibilities, and can honestly dismiss them as trivial.<\/p>\n

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